The OPEC+ alliance has agreed to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) from September, completing the rollback of one of its voluntary production-cut programmes as the group seeks to balance global supply amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The decision was reached during a virtual meeting on Sunday involving seven key producers—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman—who have led the alliance’s voluntary production adjustments since 2023.
In a joint statement, the participating countries said they had agreed to implement a production adjustment of 188,000 bpd beginning in September, a move widely anticipated by analysts and energy traders.
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The increase comes even as oil exports from the Gulf remain constrained by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz following months of conflict involving Iran and regional powers. While a memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran in June briefly improved shipping activity, export flows have yet to return to normal levels.
Energy consultancy Rystad Energy said the latest decision formally completes the unwinding of the additional voluntary cuts introduced in 2023 but noted that the immediate impact on global oil supplies is likely to remain limited.
Analyst Jorge Leon said the more significant market effect would only emerge once normal export routes through the Gulf resume, arguing that current geopolitical constraints continue to mask the full impact of higher production targets.
Several analysts also noted that higher production quotas do not automatically translate into increased exports.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said a number of OPEC+ members have experienced declining production capacity, making official output targets less meaningful because some countries cannot physically produce the volumes allocated to them.
Russia, one of the alliance’s largest producers, is also facing production challenges as repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on oil infrastructure continue to affect output, leaving production below its official quota. Iraq has, however, continued to push for greater production allowances in future negotiations.
The September increase completes the reversal of the second of three production-cut packages adopted by OPEC+ after crude prices weakened between late 2022 and 2023.
Those cuts, amounting to nearly six million barrels per day across several rounds, were introduced to stabilise international oil prices as concerns over slowing demand and rising inventories weighed on the market.
Since early 2025, however, Saudi Arabia, Russia and several partners have gradually shifted strategy by restoring portions of the curtailed production.
Attention is now turning to the alliance’s next policy phase.
Analysts expect OPEC+ to pause further output increases during the fourth quarter while member states negotiate new production quotas expected to take effect in 2027. The talks are expected to be complicated by differing production capacities and demands from some members for larger allocations.
Although analysts believe the group remains broadly united, observers say the United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC+ earlier this year has highlighted underlying tensions over production policy that could resurface during the upcoming quota negotiations.
