Nigeria’s annual inflation rate fell to 14.63% in September 2026 from 15.39% in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The government and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) point to that improvement. Whether households feel it is harder to establish, because the data that would show it is thin, out of date or modelled.
A slower rise is not a fall in prices
The annual rate measures how much higher prices are than a year earlier. It does not measure whether prices are falling. The NBS put its consumer price index at 127.7 in September 2025 and 146.38 in September 2026. The difference represents a 14.63% increase in the index over the year. Prices are higher than a year ago. They are rising more slowly than before. The monthly figures say the same: the index edged up from 146.30 in August to 146.38 in September, a monthly rise of 0.06%, not a fall.
Last year’s comparison needs care. The NBS now measures September against a restated 20.98% for September 2025. The rate first published for that month was 18.02%, before the bureau revised its 2025 annual rates after finalising its rebased index. Comparisons with last year’s headlines should use the restated series. Economic Confidential
What the annual rate hides
Through 2026 the headline rate stayed in a narrow band, from 14.63% to 15.93%: 15.10% in January, a peak of 15.93% in May and September’s low. Underneath, the components moved very differently.
Annual food inflation was 8.89% in January and 19.59% in September, after a peak of 20.31% in July. That is a rise in the annual rate, not a doubling of food prices. NBS data show food prices rose month on month in every month from February to August, and the annual rate reflects how those increases compare with the same months a year earlier. In September, food prices fell 1.55% from August, the first monthly fall since January, yet they remain 19.59% above September 2025. One monthly fall does not undo earlier rises. Vanguard
Other measures moved the other way. Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, was 12.95% on an annual basis, down from 22.11% a year earlier, but rose 1.11% in September alone after a 0.06% fall in August. The NBS energy index rose 5.38% month on month, according to reports of its September release, and stood 10.85% above a year earlier; farm produce fell 2.86% in the same month. The index covers a basket of energy items, and the reports reviewed do not break it down, so 5.38% does not mean petrol, diesel, electricity and cooking gas each rose by that amount. Vanguard
The CBN notes higher global energy prices from the Middle East conflict and lists prolonged tensions and election-related spending among the risks to prices. The latest NBS fuel and gas figures available to NewsVelocityNG are historical. Petrol averaged ₦1,596.25 a litre in May, 55.3% above May 2025, and cooking-gas data stop at April. They show the scale of the energy shock earlier in the year, not what households pay now. CBN September monetary policy communiqué
The official case
The CBN attributes the slowdown to earlier monetary tightening, exchange-rate stability and better inflation expectations, in its September communiqué. On the official market the naira closed 2025 at ₦1,435.75 to the dollar and traded at a weighted average of ₦1,348.74 on 5 November, according to CBN data as reported. Dealers quoted about ₦1,390–1,400 in the parallel market, which is not CBN data. The CBN put gross reserves at $55.25 billion on 18 September, the highest in 18 years, and the NBS reported real GDP growth of 4.43% in the second quarter, up from 3.89% in the first. The CBN reset its policy rate to 23% from 26.5%, calling it an operational realignment and not a change of stance. CBN Monetary Policy Communiqué No. 164
The government also points to tax relief. Minimum-wage earners are exempt from income tax under the new law, and Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said workers reported lower deductions in January pay. The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 growth forecast for Nigeria to 4.2%. These figures show macroeconomic stability. None of them, on its own, shows that living costs have fallen. BusinessDay
What household data can and cannot show
The national minimum wage has been ₦70,000 a month since July 2024. On 12 October, Labour Minister Muhammad Maigari Dingyadi said it was not due for review until 1 June 2027. On 27 October the government and the Nigeria Labour Congress agreed to set up a negotiation committee, though they disagreed on the effective date of any new wage. The agreement also provides a ₦70,000 monthly transport payment to federal workers for six months from November. This is a federal-worker intervention, not a payment to all Nigerian workers. Because the national minimum wage is fixed in naira, rising prices erode its purchasing power, but the size of the loss depends on the price series used. The NBS changed its index base in 2025, so this article does not offer a single figure. The tax exemption applies to eligible minimum-wage earners, while the transport payment is limited to federal workers. Neither measure reaches the entire workforce, much of which is informal. The World Bank says more than 90% of workers are informal. The Will: Minimum Wage and Government-NLC Negotiations
The World Bank’s poverty and equity brief gives the last survey-based poverty figure as 56.2% of Nigerians below the national poverty line in 2023, up from 40.1% in 2019. Its 63% figure for 2026 is a model-based projection, not a new survey finding, and the bank projects it as unchanged from 2025. The IMF has warned that dearer food and energy will deepen poverty. IMF-related report on Nigeria’s growth and poverty outlook
Labour and income data are the weakest link. The NBS’s latest unemployment figure is 4.3% for the second quarter of 2024, with 93% of employment informal, measured under a revised method that the NBS says follows international standards and is not comparable with earlier rates. The revised method counts people as employed if they did even a small amount of work during the reference period, which is one reason the figures should not be compared directly with older unemployment rates. BusinessDay reported in December 2025 that no newer figure had appeared in 14 months, and NewsVelocityNG found none since. Nor is there recent household income data; the last living-standards survey cited by the World Bank covers 2022/23. Oyedele said at Chatham House that a government survey shows some households spend up to 120% of income on food. The survey has not been identified, and NewsVelocityNG has not seen it. NBS Nigeria Labour Force Survey, Q2 2024
The next data will test the picture: the NBS’s next inflation report, third-quarter GDP, the CBN’s meeting on 23–24 November and the minimum-wage committee’s work. Until then, the evidence supports a narrower claim than a simple verdict of relief or hardship. Annual inflation has eased and macroeconomic indicators have strengthened, but the data cannot show whether households have more purchasing power, and September’s food, energy and core movements show pressure continuing.
