The World Bank has warned that global food prices climbed sharply following the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year, raising fresh concerns over inflation, hunger and economic pressure across vulnerable regions.
In a new analysis released on Tuesday, the World Bank said food prices rose by five per cent within two months after conflict erupted in the Middle East in late February 2026, pushing global food costs to their highest level since January 2024.
According to the report, the biggest increases came from oils and meals, which surged 10 per cent during the period as rising crude oil prices and expanded biofuel mandates in major economies intensified pressure on agricultural commodities.
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The bank noted that countries including Indonesia, Thailand and the United States contributed to higher demand for vegetable oils amid growing renewable fuel policies.
Grain prices, however, recorded more moderate increases despite fears of wider supply disruptions. The World Bank said grains rose three per cent over the same period due largely to “ample global supplies,” although wheat and maize still posted quarterly gains of nine per cent and four per cent respectively because of drought concerns and higher farming costs.
Despite the recent surge, the bank said the current food shock remains less severe than the spike recorded during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
“Even so, the food price response has been far more contained than in early 2022,” the World Bank stated, explaining that global grain and oilseed inventories remained relatively stable while many Northern Hemisphere farmers had already secured fertiliser supplies before the conflict escalated.
The report explained that the latest price shock is being transmitted mainly through rising energy and transportation costs rather than direct disruption of food export routes.
Oils and meals emerged as the hardest-hit category, with soybean oil prices climbing 16 per cent in the first quarter and 25 per cent year-on-year due to strong renewable diesel demand and new American biofuel targets.
Palm oil and soybeans also recorded price increases amid stronger biodiesel demand and renewed Chinese purchases, though the bank said sufficient edible oil inventories helped prevent even sharper spikes.
Food security concerns are now growing across several import-dependent economies, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, where inflation accelerated after shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
The World Bank highlighted Iran as one of the most vulnerable economies, revealing that food inflation in the country had already reached 98 per cent in February 2026 before the latest escalation in regional tensions.
Beyond the Middle East, the report said food inflation also accelerated in Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia, mirroring patterns observed during the global commodity crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The report comes as governments worldwide continue to battle elevated living costs, currency instability and supply chain disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projected only modest increases in food commodity prices if the crisis eases, forecasting a two per cent rise in grain prices and a four per cent increase in oils and meals during 2026.
However, the institution warned that risks remain “tilted firmly to the upside,” especially if disruptions continue beyond mid-year or global energy prices remain elevated.
The World Food Programme has also raised alarm, estimating that up to 45 million additional people could face acute hunger this year if supply disruptions persist, with more than half located in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region.
